Global Data Pod

• Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word

  Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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• Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

  Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lifting in getting inflation down.  We retain our sticky global core inflation view and see upside risks to our forecast for global core inflation to moderate to below 3%ar in coming quarter. Beneath this sticky inflation perspective, we continue to see scope for greater diversity in inflation outcomes across countries. This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4943283-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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  28:29
• Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading

  Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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  35:16
• Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer

  The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next week’s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025. See the Daily consumer spending tracker (https://jpmm-internal.jpmchase.net/research/open/latest/publication/9002054) for disclaimers and methodology for Chase Card Tracker data. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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  29:27
• Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions

  A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth. Odds of global recession this year have jumped to 40%. Absent recession and against the backdrop of a sharp projected rise in German fiscal spending, the US’s own policy actions are likely to end this expansion’s period of US exceptionalism.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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