It’s not that simple

• PRODUCTIVITY, with Nicholas Bloom

  How do we measure and assess productivity? What impact does remote working have on productivity? And what about artificial intelligence? In this episode of It’s Not That Simple, UK economist and remote work specialist Nicholas Bloom explores the dilemmas of modern management.At the start of the 20th century, in coal mining yards, «it was enough to count how many shovelfuls a worker dug per hour». Today, aside from a few exceptions (such as call centres), these kinds of metrics are no longer suitable for measuring productivity in an increasingly tech-driven world.Using Google as an example, the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University explains how measurement formulas have become far more diffuse and complex. Companies like Google measure productivity by analysing «the number of new apps or products delivered, the teams involved in development, the hours spent to complete production... and even then, it’s far from ideal», he says. «Measuring productivity is extremely difficult in the digital era».Bloom contends that explaining why some countries remain less productive is far more straightforward: working hours or remote work are not the issue – rather, the issue is management.«Working from home two days a week doesn’t reduce productivity. Plus, it affords companies a significant advantage: employees are less likely to quit, and high employee turnover is a big expense», he explains.Having conducted comparative studies of management practices across different sectors and countries, Bloom highlights the effectiveness of North American companies’ strategic aggressiveness: «They measure everything, set ambitious targets», and reward results quickly. In Portugal, he notes, this is not the case.But solutions do exist, and the economist offers several for Portuguese business leaders to consider. However, one vital solution lies outside companies’ control: reducing market regulation. Bloom believes that «the government should be like a football referee», establishing the rules of the game but refraining from excessive intervention.According to the winner of the Econometric Society’s Frisch Medal, competition is the driving force behind productivity within this open-market model: «The US remains the most productive country in the world because it has highly competitive markets».And what about the future? While the outlook may not look promising for the younger generation and their career prospects, Bloom believes AI could hold the key to a new leap in productivity. «Productivity has slowed over the last 50 years. It’s like an apple tree from which we have already picked all the low-hanging fruit, and only the harder-to-reach ones at the top are left». Could AI be the new orchard?More on the topic:Nicholas Bloom's workNicholas Bloom's X account«Go ahead, tell your boss you're working from home», TedXStanford by Nicholas BloomOnly in portuguese:«Como será o futuro do teletrabalho?», Da Capa à Contracapa (FFMS)«O que é a produtividade?», [IN]Pertinente podcast (FFMS)«Os mitos da produtividade», [IN]Pertinente podcast (FFMS)Infografia: «Onde pára a produtividade?» (FFMS)«Sobre o Futuro do Trabalho», de Pedro Portugal (FFMS)

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• INFLATION, with Ricardo Reis

  What if a single mistake by the European Central Bank could send Europe into a recession? Ricardo Reis, one of the most awarded Portuguese economists of his generation, dismantles the myths around inflation and shows why keeping it under control is a delicate art - with inevitable costs.In this episode of It’s Not That Simple, the professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, dismantles the idea that this variable can be easily controlled - especially when political decisions, public expectations, and global shocks intersect.In this conversation, Ricardo Reis reminds that the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were two major tests for monetary policy. In 2020, central banks feared deflation and lowered interest rates. In 2021, people spent more than expected - and inflation surged. When the second shock hit - the war - expectations were already unanchored. «It was this accumulated error that made 2022 inflation more persistent».The response - raising rates - worked. «Inflation fell without unemployment rising, but it would have dropped faster if there had been a recession». That’s the dilemma that Reis knows well, because he is also an academic consultant to the Bank of England, the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.And now? The worst is behind us, but expectations have changed. The trust  in the ECB is no longer what it once was.Beyond that, the tariffs imposed by the US on imported goods are the next test, according to the professor. «They’ll generate domestic inflation and a recession», but the risk is global, as they trigger trade wars and could force Europe to retaliate. Could the result be a recession in Europe, as well?

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• SPACE EXPLORATION, with Ezinne Uzo-Okoro

  Are we safe hovering in the unknown? Harvard researcher and former assistant director for Space Policy at the White House, Ezinne Uzo-Okoro, is the guest of this «It's not that simple» edition.In this conversation, Ezinne explains how satellites and space technology are already protecting lives on Earth - from monitoring the climate to anticipating disasters. But she also discusses the real risks we face: space junk, the increasing privatisation of space and the lack of clear global regulation.With the end of the International Space Station planned for 2030 and new commercial players entering orbit, the Space Policy advisor raises the question: are we prepared for this new space race?Exploring space is no longer science fiction - it's a matter of survival.More on the topic:Ezinne's portfolio (MIT)Mars Science Laboratory: Curiosity Rover (NASA)NASA's blog

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• Artificial Intelligence, with Neil Lawrence

  AI: a dangerous threat or an indispensable tool for today and the future? «Artificial Intelligence is the most disruptive technology we've ever seen», claims Neil Lawrence, DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge. However, he also believes that AI «is the continuation of a technological revolution» in how we share information via computers.Speaking in Lisbon, the guest of this edition of «It's Not That Simple» highlighted a critical issue regarding AI usage: «It is not being used in the areas people are asking us to use it: health, social care, education or security.»While optimistic about the relationship between humanity and AI, Lawrence acknowledges the difficulties in regulating such a rapidly evolving field. He warns against leaving regulation to «inflexible and under-resourced» regulators to «decide the future for us all.»More on the topic:Neil Lawrence: «The Atomic Human: What makes us unique in the age of AI» (Talks at Google)Neil Lawrence: «The Atomic Human - Understanding ourselves in the age of AI» (Finnish Centre for Artificial Intelligence)Neil Lawrence: ‘Is AI beyond our human understanding?’BBC interviewInterview with the University of CambridgeEpisode of the ‘Futures’ podcastNeil Lawrence's Linkedin

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• GLOBALIZATION, with Anil Gupta

  There is a clear Cold War between the US and China, but it differs from the one between the US and the Soviet Union and is «far more dangerous». The warning is given by Anil Gupta, the renowned expert on globalization, emerging markets and innovation, who guarantees that China is not, in economic terms, a «pygmy» like the Soviet power was compared to the American «giant». Analysing what the specialist considers to be «the biggest geopolitical issue of our time», the expert argues that China is a «technological, industrial, economic and military power», pointing out that the relationship with the US is not really improving. In addition to the clash between superpowers, Anil Gupta says that «the growth of emerging markets» has also fuelled geopolitical tensions. While in 2000 there were 20 emerging economies, today their number has more than doubled. And the growth of these economies is expected to remain stable over the next few years, emphasizes the expert. This means that the emerging markets - China and India, but also Indonesia, Brazil and Nigeria - are becoming not only important in economic terms but also in political terms. Rated by Thinkers50 as «one of the world's most influential management thinkers», Anil Gupta recalls the risk associated with supply chains, which the pandemic has already highlighted. The case of medical equipment used in the US is paradigmatic. Over the last 20 years, most of the gloves used by US surgeons have come from China. ‘In the event of a conflict with China, ‘would the US want to be dependent on such a simple item?’. A positive aspect of globalization is technology. In this interview, Gupta considers that ‘Artificial Intelligence is the most powerful technology that mankind has ever invented’. But he reminds us of the risks associated with it in the long term. «In 50 years, will AI treat humans the way we treat ants today?». More on the topic: Official website «London Speaker Bureau» interview «Leading Authorities International» interview «The CrossroadTimes» podcast interview

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