From "Everything Bubble" To "Everything Bust"? Michael Howell on Liquidity In 2025 & Beyond
Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his outlook on global liquidity from three sources: central banks, cross border flows, and the private sector. Howell expects the liquidity cycle to peak in late 2025 / early 2026 and says "enjoy the party but dance near the door." Recorded on December 19, 2024.
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs
Follow Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital) on Twitter https://x.com/crossbordercap
CrossBorder’s Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.com/
“Capital Wars” Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
“Capital Wars” the book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
___
Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship:
This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns.
Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
--------
1:50:57
U.S. Recession To Be Revealed By January 2025 “Data Bomb” | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market will be revealed. Recorded on December 19, 2024.
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth
QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/
Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Other People’s Money on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
--------
1:04:48
Jack Farley & Max Wiethe on Fed Hawkishness & Steep Stock Market Sell-off
Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do in 2025. Recorded just after the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024.
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Other People’s Money on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
--------
37:36
Inside the Secret World of Prop Traders | Noel Smith of Convex Asset Management
Noel Smith, founder of Convex Asset Management has spent most of his career outside of the world of managing other people’s money. Instead, he traded his own capital as a proprietary trader. Prop traders are famed for generating staggering rates of return, but because they have no interest in raising money, their secrets and strategies generally remain behind closed doors. However, he has decided to bring these strategies to the hedge fund world at Convex Asset Management and while they don’t scale to produce the same level of returns their lack of availability outside the prop world gives him differentiation in the product marketplace. In this interview, Smith explains why props can make so much more money, how much harder capital raising is than he anticipated, and why he ranks relationships and likability higher than performance when it comes to hedge fund success.
Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi
YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR
Follow Noel Smith on Twitter: https://x.com/NoelConvex
Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:16 What is Prop Trading?
10:51 Moving to the Hedge Fund World
16:36 The Hedge Fund Popularity Contest
23:04 Volatility Trading Strategies
27:27 Extracting Information From The Options Market
32:09 Scaling Prop Strategies
34:44 Alpha Degradation
39:31 Being Good Is Not Enough
48:03 Dealing With Extreme Performance
53:28 Long-term Vision For Convex Asset Management
--------
55:33
The Treacherous Last Mile of Inflation | Vincent Deluard on France, 2025 U.S. Fiscal Drag, COLA Pain, and the U.S. Healthcare Price Spiral
Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks.
Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security. He thinks a strong U.S. dollar could dent corporate profits and that state and local governments plan to actually shrink expenditures in 2025.
Deluard, a Frenchman, shares his detailed view on political chaos in France and its macroeconomic consequences. Recorded on December 11, 2024.
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://x.com/VincentDeluard
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Portugal